SpaceX IPO and beyond

Late‑stage private companies are driving a growing share of innovation, against a backdrop of reopening IPO markets and evolving investor access to private opportunities.

28 May 2026

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), one of the world’s most valuable private companies¹, has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)². This highlights how innovation and value creation are increasingly occurring outside public markets.

The company’s implied valuation is approximately USD 1.25 trillion following the acquisition of xAI³, while media reports have referenced potential IPO valuation ranges of around USD 1.75⁴ -2.0⁵ trillion. If realised, this would suggest an IPO valuation premium of roughly 40%-60% relative to recent transaction valuations. Reuters has reported that SpaceX is expected to list on Nasdaq from 12 June 2026.⁶ If completed at these levels, the IPO could become the largest in both US and global market history.⁷

Given its scale, we believe SpaceX could attract a broad investor base if listed. Nasdaq has also approved methodology changes, effective May 2026⁸, introducing a fast-entry mechanism that may allow eligible large-cap IPOs to be considered for index inclusion after approximately 15 trading days, subject to applicable rules and governance⁹. This could lead to automatic ownership by mutual funds and ETFs tracking these benchmarks.

While SpaceX is a prominent example, it sits within a broader pipeline of large, high-growth private companies now approaching public markets.

IPO markets reopen as private market liquidity improves

The 2026 IPO market is showing early signs of re-engagement, supported by a pipeline of large, high-growth companies across artificial intelligence (AI) and space-related industries, including SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. While the first quarter of 2026 was characterised by a slower and more volatile start, industry commentary continues to point to a substantial backlog of private companies that may seek public listings as market conditions stabilise.¹⁰

This improving IPO backdrop is reflected in private markets. Q1 2026 saw continued strength, particularly at the top end of venture capital (VC), where funding remained concentrated in a small number of scaled AI businesses. More broadly, we see signs of improving liquidity, although progress remains uneven across sectors and companies.

Chart 1: Global VC dollar volume vs deal count

At earlier stages, Carta data indicate record-setting valuations, with round sizes increasing, while dilution at Seed¹¹ and Series A¹² remained broadly in line with historical norms (around 19% to 20%).¹³ This suggests that venture investors continue to commit larger amounts of capital to their highest-conviction opportunities, despite more selective deal activity.

Chart 2: Seed valuations continued to rise in 2025

Median seed-stage valuations by quarter (Q4 2022-Q4 2025)

Looking ahead, liquidity remains a key variable, with a significant amount of value still locked in private companies. We believe improving exit conditions would be a meaningful positive for the asset class over the next 12 to 24 months.

Companies are staying private for longer

SpaceX, xAI and OpenAI illustrate a broader shift, with much of today’s value creation taking place before companies reach public markets.

Investors active during the late 1990s and early 2000s may recall that many of today’s largest companies, including Apple, Cisco, Adobe and Amazon, went public relatively early in their development.¹⁴ This has changed significantly.

In 1999, the average company spent around four years in private markets before listing, typically at a market capitalisation of nearly USD 500 million. Between 2020 and 2025, the average company remained sprivate for more than 12 years, listing at an average market capitalisation of approximately USD 1.8 billion.¹⁵ Regulatory changes in the early 2000s enabled companies to raise capital from a broader investors base, enabling them to fund growth and scale while remaining private for longer.

Chart 3: The private market is now predominant

As a result, much of the today’s opportunity set remains outside public markets. Around 77% of US companies generating more than USD 100 million in revenue are privately held¹⁶, and the number of private companies valued at over USD 1 billion has increased from just one in 2010 to more than 1,300 by 2025¹⁷. As innovation and value creation become increasingly concentrated in private markets, we believe investors without exposure to these companies could risk missing the next wave of transformative growth.

Capturing value before IPO

Traditional VC typically targets early‑stage businesses with long investment horizons. By contrast, the team has strong conviction in later‑stage companies already backed by leading global VC firms. These businesses generally have established governance, proven business models and meaningful revenue, and are typically two to five years away from a potential liquidity event through either an IPO or acquisition.

This segment differs materially from traditional VC’s 10- to 15-year time horizon. The companies tend to be more mature, with real products, established customer bases and clear growth pathways.

Chart 4: Performance of US VC-backed companies with an IPO exit

(1 January 2010 – 31 December 2025)

Our research, based on a study of nearly 800 US ventured-backed companies that completed an IPO over a 15-year period, showed that investing at the final private funding round and holding until six months after listing generated average returns of approximately 249%. By comparison, investors entering at the IPO achieved average returns of around 16% over the same period, while those buying on the first day of trading experienced negative returns on average.

In our view, these findings support the view that a meaningful share of value creation is now occurring while companies remain private.

Liberty Street Advisors, Inc., manages the Private Shares strategy for GAM Investments. You can find out more about private markets and late-stage VC opportunities here. For further information on potential IPO opportunities, please get in touch.